The Inevitable Fall of Facebook

One can't avoid being inundated with reports about Facebook these days. Even now, as its fourth launch anniversary nears, web application blogs and even mainstream sources report on Facebook as if it's the best thing to hit the web since Google. Recent predictions claim that Facebook is poised to overtake Myspace and keep growing until its user-base reaches one billion users. Well, here's one longtime user that doesn't think so.

I've been a Facebook user since May of 2004. I've seen every evolutionary step and minute innovation. I've read all of the criticism, and a great deal of the praise. On the surface, it would seem as though Facebook's present position is as strong as ever, flirting with 40 million active users. However, Facebook has made a host of (arguably) poor decisions that have culminated in a tradeoff between usage-hours and long-term sustainability.

In a continual attempt to increase the breadth of its user-base, Facebook has abandoned a great deal of its core competencies, and alienated its original and most loyal users. Furthermore, it has failed to capitalize on localization, its greatest asset and point of differentiation. Its vague revenue model, and excessive decentralization will also contribute to its collapse. I will discuss each of these points in detail in future posts.

My confidence in these failures is so great that I've put an upper-bound on Facebook's expected life: 5 years. That's how long it will take for Facebook to become a non-contender in the sphere of social computing. Certain strategic changes could dramatically lengthen this prediction, but given the current trends, that's my forecast. Sound crazy? Perhaps. Digest my reasoning in the next few posts, and decide for yourself.